Analysing Election and Public Opinion Data (online)

This course offers a deep dive into the analytical techniques used to dissect election and survey data, providing insights into the mechanics of political behaviour and electoral dynamics. 

Participants will explore a range of statistical methods and models, from measuring ideological leanings and voter segmentation to modelling electoral behaviour.

Through a blend of theory and practical application using real-world data and case studies, the course aims to equip attendees with a nuanced understanding of the complex

Course Description

Course Timings: 09:00 – 17:00

Course Contents:

Measuring Issue Preferences and Ideology Using Survey Data
•    Introduction to factor analysis and Item Response Theory (IRT)
•    Application in uncovering ideological dimensions.
•    Utilising Aldrich-McKelvey Scaling for accurate ideological representation.
Voter Segmentation
•    Employing clustering techniques to identify distinct voter groups.
Spatial Models of Electoral Competition
•    Introduction and application of spatial models in electoral analysis
Latent Utility Models of Electoral Choice
•    Utilising latent utility models to modelling voter decisions
Who Votes? Models of Turnout Behaviour
•    Exploring the motivations behind voter turnout using logistic regression.
Explaining Party Choice
•    Applying multinomial logistic regression to analyse party preferences.
Bonus: Election Forecasts using Probability Elicitation
•    Exploring techniques for generating accurate election forecasts through probability elicitation

By the end of this workshop you will:
•    Master statistical techniques for a solid analysis of individual level public opinion data.
•    Gain insight into the factors driving political behaviour, voter preferences, and electoral outcomes.
•    Develop the ability to critically assess and interpret trends in political polarisation and voter dynamics.
•    Acquire the skills to apply empirical models for a deeper understanding of electoral participation and decision-making processes.