Population Projection and Forecasting

At any time horizon, policy depends upon estimates of population size and structure. Without population forecasts, planning for pension spending, housing demand, healthcare provision, and school place requirements becomes impossible. To know what the size and structure of our population will look like in the future, we need to have the tools to make demographic projections confidently. 

This course introduces the methods for forecasting the key components of population change, dealing in turn with mortality, fertility and migration. The course also includes an introduction to matrix models for multi-population forecasting is provided, together with a discussion of how to validate and assess uncertainty in demographic projections.

The course will include hands-on computer workshops using the R programming language.

This course is intended to follow on from a related NCRM course Introduction to Demographic Methods, which will run on 5-6 April 2027. Participants may choose to attend one or both courses as their prior experience and time allows. 

The course covers: 

• The cohort component projection model

• Matrix population models 

• Principal component methods for population estimation and forecasting

• Validating and assessing uncertainty in population forecasts

By the end of the course participants will:

• Appreciate contemporary issues in demographic forecasting
• Be able to produce projections of each of the demographic components (mortality, fertility, and migration)
• Produce full population projections using the cohort component model
• Use matrix models for multi-population projection

Pre-requisites

This practical course will include workshops in the R programming language. Basic knowledge of R is a requirement. If you do not currently use R, but would still like to take the course, pre-course material will provide links to free introductory online courses to aid preparation. 

Knowledge of basic demographic techniques is recommended, including: 

• The distinction between rates and probabilities in a demographic context
• The life table
• Basic fertility measures

Completion of the companion course Introduction to Demographic Methods would be advantageous but is not required.

Target Audience

• Analysts working at or with National Statistical Offices, International Non-Governmental Organisations, and Government Departments with an interest in population estimation and projection. Examples include the ONS, the DHCLG; local and devolved government bodies; UN agencies. 
• PhD students working on population-related topics including demography, population health, human geography, etc.
• Employees of private sector organisations who have an interest in population change:
  Consumer-focussed industries; 
  Retailers
  Market research agencies
  Utility companies
  Construction companies

THIS COURSE IS BEING DELIVERED IN-PERSON AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON (BUILDING 39, ROOM 2015) AND WILL RUN FROM 10:00 to 17:00 ON 5 AND 6 APRIL. IT EQUATES TO TWO TEACHING DAYS FOR PAYMENT PURPOSES.